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NFL Super Bowl odds 2022: Model enters predictions, picks to win, teams to avoid

It might be more than eight months away, but it’s never too early to start thinking about your 2022 Super Bowl picks. Now that rosters are taking shape and training camp is upon us, it’s time to examine the 2022 Super Bowl odds to ensure a big plus-money payout. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the reigning Super Bowl champions, but they aren’t the oddsmakers’ top choice to hoist the Lombardi Trophy next February.

The Kansas City Chiefs, who lost to Tampa Bay in this year’s title game, are the +525 favorites in the latest Super Bowl 56 odds from William Hill Sportsbook, with the Bucs listed second at +650. Before making any 2022 Super Bowl picks, you need to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters the 2021 season on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has set its sights on finding value in the 2022 Super Bowl odds. You can see its top NFL picks and predictions here.

Top 2022 Super Bowl predictions

After simulating the season 10,000 times, the model finds value in the Saints, even though they’re long shots at +2500 to win the Super Bowl. Former Bucs starter Jameis Winston and 31-year-old New Orleans veteran Taysom Hill both could see time at quarterback in place of Drew Brees. Winston topped 5,000 yards in his final season with the Buccaneers but also threw 30 interceptions, while the versatile Hill is a non-traditional option. They still have two of the NFL’s top offensive weapons in wideout Michael Thomas and running back Alvin Kamara, while one of the best offensive lines in the NFL remains intact.

The Saints had a top-five defense across the board last season, allowing just 21 points and 310 yards per game. They took the ball away 26 times and had the third-most sacks in the league with 51. The model shows New Orleans with a 5.0 percent chance to win Super Bowl LVI, significantly better than the 3.8. percent the team’s +2500 Super Bowl 2022 odds imply.

Another curveball: The model is fading the Buccaneers, even though they’re one of the top favorites at +650 and just hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. Tampa Bay is coming off a dream season. After finishing second in the NFC South, the Buccaneers ran the table in the playoffs and upset the Chiefs in the Super Bowl for the franchise’s second title. Veteran running back Giovani Bernard joins a team that did not lose any key players in the offseason.

However, Tampa Bay is winning the Super Bowl in just 12.3 percent of SportsLine’s simulations. At the team’s current price of +650, the Buccaneers have an implied winning percentage of 13.3, meaning they do not offer value at their price. There are far better 2022 Super Bowl bets to make, according to the model.

How to make 2022 Super Bowl picks

The model is also high on a juicy long shot in the AFC that would pay even better than the Colts. You need to see the model’s analysis before making any Super Bowl 56 bets.

So which long shot provides a juicy price to win Super Bowl LVI? And what other teams provide value at their current Super Bowl 2022 odds? Check out the latest Super Bowl LVI odds below, then visit SportsLine to see the picks from the model that’s up almost $7,900.

2022 Super Bowl odds to win

Chiefs +525
Buccaneers +650
Bills +1300
Ravens +1400
Rams +1400
49ers +1400
Packers +1600
Browns +1800
Broncos +2000
Colts +2500
Saints +2500
Seahawks +2500
Dolphins +2800
Cowboys +2800
Titans +3000
Patriots +3000
Steelers +3500
Chargers +3500
Cardinals +4000
Vikings +4000
Falcons +5000
Bears +5000
Washington Football Team +5000
Panthers +6000
Raiders +7000
Giants +7500
Eagles +7500
Bengals +10000
Jaguars +10000
Jets +10000
Lions +15000
Texans +20000