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NFL Super Bowl odds 2022: Model releases predictions, top picks to win, teams to avoid

After failing to repeat as Super Bowl champions in February, the Kansas City Chiefs are the favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February. The Chiefs had defeated the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 54 to win the title for the first time in 48 years. After falling to Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV, Kansas City is back as the +525 favorite in the latest 2022 Super Bowl odds from William Hill Sportsbook.

Among the other 2022 Super Bowl favorites are the Buccaneers at +650 and the Buffalo Bills at +1300. Former champions with low Super Bowl 56 odds include the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, and Baltimore Ravens, all at +1400. One team looking for its first Super Bowl appearance is Cleveland, as the Browns are +1600. Before making any 2022 Super Bowl picks based on the latest NFL odds, you need to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters the 2021 season on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has set its sights on finding value in the 2022 Super Bowl odds. You can see its top NFL picks and predictions here.

Top 2022 Super Bowl predictions

After simulating the season 10,000 times, the model finds value in the Bills, even though they’re long shots at +1300 to win the Super Bowl. The Bills are powered by quarterback Josh Allen, who was fifth in the league in passing with 4,544 yards. He completed 69.2 percent of his passes and threw 37 touchdowns while being intercepted 10 times. His favorite target was the league’s top receiver, Stefon Diggs, who caught 127 passes for 1,535 yards and eight touchdowns.

This offseason, the Bills have been busy improving their roster. The Bills resigned wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders to keep the pressure on opposing defenses. Last season, he finished with 61 receptions for 726 yards and five touchdowns. Other key additions and re-signings included tight end Jacob Hollister, linebacker Matt Milano, wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie, tackle Daryl Williams, guard Jon Feliciano and linebacker Tyrell Adams.

The Bills also added a pair of edge rushers through the draft, Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham Jr., who could blossom into solid contributors on defense. With the return of a potent offense, the Bills win Super Bowl LVI 9.9 percent of the time, according to SportsLine’s model. That’s more than the implied winning percentage of 7.1 based on the team’s +1300 Super Bowl odds 2022 at William Hill Sportsbook, making Buffalo a strong value.

Another curveball: The model is fading the Buccaneers, even though they’re one of the top favorites at +650 and just hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. Tampa Bay is coming off a dream season. After finishing second in the NFC South, the Buccaneers ran the table in the playoffs and upset the Chiefs in the Super Bowl for the franchise’s second title. Veteran running back Giovani Bernard joins a team that did not lose any key players in the offseason.

However, Tampa Bay is winning the Super Bowl in just 12.3 percent of SportsLine’s simulations. At the team’s current price of +650, the Buccaneers have an implied winning percentage of 13.3, meaning they do not offer value at their price. There are far better 2022 Super Bowl bets to make, according to the model.

How to make 2022 Super Bowl picks

The model is also high on a juicy long shot in the AFC that would pay even better than the Colts. You need to see the model’s analysis before making any Super Bowl 56 bets.

So which long shot provides a juicy price to win Super Bowl LVI? And what other teams provide value at their current Super Bowl 2022 odds? Check out the latest Super Bowl LVI odds below, then visit SportsLine to see the picks from the model that’s up almost $7,900.

2022 Super Bowl odds to win

Chiefs +525
Buccaneers +650
Bills +1300
Ravens +1400
Rams +1400
49ers +1400
Packers +1600
Browns +1800
Broncos +2000
Colts +2500
Saints +2500
Seahawks +2500
Dolphins +2800
Cowboys +2800
Titans +3000
Patriots +3000
Steelers +3500
Chargers +3500
Cardinals +4000
Vikings +4000
Falcons +5000
Bears +5000
Washington Football Team +5000
Panthers +6000
Raiders +7000
Giants +7500
Eagles +7500
Bengals +10000
Jaguars +10000
Jets +10000
Lions +15000
Texans +20000