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NFL Super Bowl odds 2022: Model releases top predictions, picks to win, teams to avoid

After a tumultuous 2020 campaign, things are expected to be mostly back to normal for the upcoming 2021 NFL season. That means full offseason workouts and time for rookies and free agents to acclimate, and it also means more useful information for bettors to take an early look at the 2022 Super Bowl futures odds and get a jump on the season. Many players might have struggled in 2020, but Tom Brady adjusted to a new team just fine, leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers past the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVI. Both teams return largely intact for the 2021 NFL season, and they are the top choices in the Super Bowl 2022 futures odds.          

William Hill Sportsbook lists Kansas City, the 2019 champion led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, as the +525 favorite in its latest 2022 Super Bowl odds. Tampa Bay is the second choice at +650, followed by the reigning AFC East-champion Buffalo Bills at +1300. Other teams with high expectations to win the 2022 Super Bowl include the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Baltimore Ravens, all at +1400. Before making any 2022 Super Bowl picks based on the latest NFL odds, you need to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters the 2021 season on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has set its sights on finding value in the 2022 Super Bowl odds. You can see its top NFL picks and predictions here.

Top 2022 Super Bowl predictions

After simulating the season 10,000 times, the model finds value in the Ravens at +1400 in the Super Bowl 56 odds. The pandemic affected Baltimore more than most and might have cost the Ravens the AFC North title. Pittsburgh took the division after winning both matchups, including a 19-14 triumph in Week 12 with the Ravens missing more than a dozen players. That included 2019 MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson and top running backs Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins, but the Steelers scored just once in four red-zone trips and nearly blew a 12-point lead.    

The Ravens won all five regular-season games after that loss, outscoring their opponents 186-89, before being ousted by Buffalo in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Baltimore also won an NFL-best 14 games in 2019, and Jackson should continue to perform at a high level. Dobbins is expected to take a leap forward in his second season, and the offense added first-round pick Rashod Bateman at wideout. The offensive line has also seen upgrades, which should give Jackson time and space to shine.    

The model shows Baltimore with a 9.5 percent chance to win the Lombardi Trophy, much better than the 6.7 percent its +1400 Super Bowl 2022 odds imply. The defense also saw improvements, with second-round pass rusher Jayson Oweh joining a unit that already includes 2020 All-Rookie first-rounder Patrick Queen at linebacker. The Ravens were second in scoring defense (18.9 points per game) and seventh in total defense (329.8 yards) in 2020. With the upgrades on both sides of the ball, the model is projecting the Ravens as a strong value in the 2022 Super Bowl Futures.

How to make 2022 Super Bowl picks

The model is also high on a juicy long shot in the AFC that would pay even better than the Colts. You need to see the model’s analysis before making any Super Bowl 56 bets.

So which long shot provides a juicy price to win Super Bowl LVI? And what other teams provide value at their current Super Bowl 2022 odds? Check out the latest Super Bowl LVI odds below, then visit SportsLine to see the picks from the model that’s up almost $7,900.

2022 Super Bowl odds to win

Chiefs +525
Buccaneers +650
Bills +1300
Ravens +1400
Rams +1400
49ers +1400
Packers +1600
Browns +1800
Broncos +2000
Colts +2500
Saints +2500
Seahawks +2500
Dolphins +2800
Cowboys +2800
Titans +3000
Patriots +3000
Steelers +3500
Chargers +3500
Cardinals +4000
Vikings +4000
Falcons +5000
Bears +5000
Washington Football Team +5000
Panthers +6000
Raiders +7000
Giants +7500
Eagles +7500
Bengals +10000
Jaguars +10000
Jets +10000
Lions +15000
Texans +20000