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2021 Ally 400 picks, odds, predictions: Legendary NASCAR expert fading Martin Truex Jr. at Nashville

The biggest challenge for any driver in the NASCAR Cup series right now appears to be attempting to finish ahead of Kyle Larson. The winner of the last three Cup events, including the All-Star Race and the last two points-paying races, Larson is the favorite at 5-2 to win in the latest 2021 Ally 400 odds from William Hill Sportsbook. But this will be the first-ever Cup race at Nashville Superspeedway in series history, and Larson has never raced at the track before at any level in the major NASCAR national series. 

Kyle Busch will be among those to watch when the green flag drops on the 2021 Ally 400 on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Busch is listed at 15-2 NASCAR at Nashville odds, but you have to consider that he has the most NASCAR wins at the site, including two in the Truck Series and one in the Xfinity Series. Kevin Harvick, who is listed at 10-1 odds, has two Xfinity wins at Nashviile, as does Brad Keselowski, who is at 12-1. You’ll want to check out the NASCAR at Nashville predictions for the Ally 400 from Micah Roberts, the legendary Vegas bookmaker who pioneered wagering on racing, before locking in any 2021 Ally 400 picks.

Roberts is the nation’s premier NASCAR betting expert, and his top pick, Larson, won the Coca-Cola 600 in the final event of May at 11-2 odds. He also correctly predicted the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix the previous week, hitting Chase Elliott’s win at 8-5 odds.

He began a stretch of three winners in six races on Apr. 25, when he nailed Brad Keselowski’s win in the GEICO 500 at 14-1 odds.

Roberts correctly called the first two races of the 2020 season and also enjoyed success the previous year, as his top four choices in each race during the 2019 NASCAR campaign returned a head-turning $3,400 to those who put down $50 on each. In addition, he has correctly predicted at least six top-10 finishers in nine of the last 14 races of the 2021 campaign. 

Now, Roberts has analyzed the field and odds for Sunday’s NASCAR at Nashville 2021 race. He’s sharing his winner and leaderboard right here.

2021 NASCAR at Nashville expert predictions

One shocker: Roberts is not backing Martin Truex Jr. as a top contender in the Ally 400 2021 even though he had two top-five finishes at Nashville in the Xfinity Series and led for 105 laps in his last race at the site. In fact, Roberts says Truex, who is third in driver rating overall this season at 102.4, barely cracks the top 10 on his projected Ally 400 leaderboard. 

“His three wins using this week’s race package are the most among all drivers, but those wins came in the first six races using it. In the three races since Darlington using the package he had poor finishes at Dover and COTA and finished third at Sonoma two weeks ago,” Roberts told SportsLine. “My thinking now is that all Hendrick drivers should be favored over Truex.”  

Another curveball: Roberts is high on William Byron, even though he is listed at 13-1 in the latest NASCAR at Nashville odds 2021. Byron is fifth in driver rating this season at 100.0, ahead of bigger names such as Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick. Roberts uses a recent race at Dover as a measuring stick for his leaderboard projections for this week, and Byron finished fourth at Dover, making him a much better choice than some other drivers with better odds. 

Roberts points out that Byron “leads laps, and gets to the front no matter what race package he’s in.” Yet he is listed at 13-1, while Harvick is at 10-1, much to Roberts’ delight. “I’ll take it. Harvick’s a name, Byron’s not yet.”

How to make 2021 Ally 400 picks

Roberts is all over a long shot who can become the latest winner from a team that is surging recently. This driver is being underestimated by oddsmakers, and anyone who backs him could hit it big. You can only see who it is here.

So who wins the Ally 400 2021? And which long shot stuns NASCAR? Visit SportsLine now to see the 2021 NASCAR at Nashville leaderboard from the nation’s premier NASCAR handicapper, and find out.

2021 Ally 400 odds

Kyle Larson 5-2
Martin Truex Jr. 5-1
Denny Hamlin 6-1
Chase Elliott 13-2
Kyle Busch 15-2
Kevin Harvick 10-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Joey Logano 12-1
William Byron 13-1
Alex Bowman 13-1
Ryan Blaney 22-1
Christopher Bell 35-1
Tyler Reddick 40-1
Kurt Busch 60-1
Austin Dillon 75-1
Matt DiBenedetto 75-1
Chris Buescher 150-1
Ross Chastain 150-1
Daniel Suarez 200-1
Ryan Newman 200-1
Erik Jones 200-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 200-1
Aric Almirola 200-1
Bubba Wallace 250-1
Cole Custer 250-1
Michael McDowell 500-1
Chase Briscoe 500-1
Ryan Preece 750-1
Joey Gase 2500-1
David Starr 5000-1
Chad Finchum 5000-1
Justin Haley 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Corey Lajoie 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1
Anthony Alfredo 5000-1