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NFL Super Bowl odds 2022: Proven model gives predictions, picks to win, teams to avoid

The Kansas City Chiefs are the 2022 Super Bowl favorites at SoFi Stadium, according to William Hill Sportsbook. The Chiefs, who failed to defend their Super Bowl title when they lost to Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV last February, are the +500 favorites to reclaim the championship. Tampa Bay is a +650 favorite according to the latest 2022 Super Bowl odds.

The next tier of Super Bowl 56 contenders include the Buffalo Bills at +1300, and the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens all at +1400. The Green Bay Packers and Cleveland Browns are both listed at +1600, while the Tennessee Titans moved up to +3000 after acquiring wide receiver Julio Jones from Atlanta. Before making any 2022 Super Bowl picks based on the latest NFL odds, you need to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters the 2021 season on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has set its sights on finding value in the 2022 Super Bowl odds. You can see its top NFL picks and predictions here.

Top 2022 Super Bowl predictions

After simulating the season 10,000 times, the model likes the value of the New Orleans Saints, even though they’re long shots at +2500. Although the Saints defeated the Buccaneers twice during the 2020 regular season, they fell 30-20 in the NFC Divisional playoff round. New Orleans was impressive after losing starting quarterback Drew Brees to injury late in the season, as the Saints still went 3-1 with Taysom Hill under center before Brees returned for the stretch run and playoffs.

This season, it will be Hill, Jameis Winston or fourth-round draft pick Ian Book in that role now that Brees has retired. Despite the change under center, New Orleans returns a number of key weapons, including Hill, who completed a team-best 72.7 percent of his passes last year. Hill is a threat from anywhere on the field. He threw four touchdowns, rushed for 457 yards and eight TDs, and caught eight passes for 98 yards and a score.

With the return of a potent offense and improving defense, the Saints have a strong chance to win the big game. According to the model, New Orleans wins Super Bowl LVI 5.1 percent of the time. That’s more than the implied winning percentage of 3.8 based on the team’s +2500 Super Bowl odds 2022 at William Hill Sportsbook, making the Saints a strong value.

How to make 2022 Super Bowl picks

The model is also high on a juicy long shot in the AFC that would pay even better than the Colts. You need to see the model’s analysis before making any Super Bowl 56 bets.

So which long shot provides a juicy price to win Super Bowl LVI? And what other teams provide value at their current Super Bowl 2022 odds? Check out the latest Super Bowl LVI odds below, then visit SportsLine to see the picks from the model that’s up almost $7,900.

2022 Super Bowl odds to win

Chiefs +525
Buccaneers +650
Bills +1300
Ravens +1400
Rams +1400
49ers +1400
Packers +1600
Browns +1800
Broncos +2000
Colts +2500
Saints +2500
Seahawks +2500
Dolphins +2800
Cowboys +2800
Titans +3000
Patriots +3000
Steelers +3500
Chargers +3500
Cardinals +4000
Vikings +4000
Falcons +5000
Bears +5000
Washington Football Team +5000
Panthers +6000
Raiders +7000
Giants +7500
Eagles +7500
Bengals +10000
Jaguars +10000
Jets +10000
Lions +15000
Texans +20000